Presenters:
- Keith Palmer, Actuarial, PwC
- Robbie Kerr, Corporate Liability Restructuring, PwC
- Stephanie Robb, Actuarial, PwC
- Rebecca Wilkinson, Corporate Liability Restructuring, PwC
- Louis Isaacson, Corporate Liability Restructuring, PwC
This session focused on the results of PwC’s 2025 Global Insurance Run-off Survey produced in association with AIRROC and IRLA. The session kicked off with an overview of deals announced in 2025. Both the number of deals and their size have decreased substantially compared to 2024, with a total of 25 deals totaling $1.14bn in estimated gross reserves in 2025 compared to 34 deals totaling $6.6bn in 2024. The majority of these deals were in the UK and Ireland. The panelists noted throughout the presentation that part of the slowdown in the U.S. market is a result of the difficulty in pricing the U.S. casualty market, particularly due to factors such as social inflation.
The panelists also discussed the industry’s expectation of future transactions. Respondents to PwC’s survey largely felt that the number of transactions would be similar or greater over the next 18 months. Respondents felt that the greatest deal size opportunity was in the $250M-$1bn range, and that the most common type of transaction type was the LPT. However, the panelists did note an uptick in interest in legal finality solutions, such as Part VIIs.
With respect to reserving trends, reserve strength has been increasing over the last few years. Reserve margins are normally held to cover uncertainty, so this could be a sign of concerns about uncertainty particularly for macro economical, climate change, and geopolitical drivers. Returning to the theme of uncertainty in the U.S. casualty market, there has been significant adverse reserve development in lines of business with longer tails. However, this development has been largely offset by positive reserve developments in short tail lines such as personal auto. While survey respondents certainly had mixed views on the future of the legacy market and how it would evolve, they maintained an overall positive outlook.
A video replay of this presentation can be accessed in the AIRROC On-Demand Library at https://airroc.memberclicks.net/airroc-on-demand.
